Shift stock1/6/2024 ![]() We used species abundance data for 1947–2006 in 41 standard survey areas across the North Atlantic ( 19) and converted abundance to presence-only data because it is difficult to confirm the absence of rare species present in low concentrations. The SDM for each species was constructed with the Ma圎nt modeling method ( 13– 17) by pairing 60 y of Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR SI Text) ( 18) presence-only data with repeating annual cycles for observed environmental predictor variables generally found to affect phytoplankton abundance and community composition: sea surface temperature (SST) sea surface salinity (SSS) mixed layer depth (MLD) photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and the surface concentrations of nitrate, phosphate, and silicate. ![]() We used the bioclimate envelope approach ( 12), in which we quantified the realized ecological niche for each species from historical observations and applied this species distribution model (SDM) to map and compare species biogeographies in modeled historical (1951–2000) and projected future (2051–2100) ocean conditions ( Methods and Supporting Information). Projected basin-scale changes in clouds and sea ice cover may also drive changes in light entering the ocean surface. The cooling here is associated with weaker transport of heat into the surface laterally and from below by convection but is also because stratified surface waters are exposed to the relatively cold atmosphere for a longer duration ( 5). Here, strong salinity-driven surface stratification arising from ice melt and enhanced precipitation over evaporation may weaken meridional overturning ( 4). Many models project that waters southeast of Greenland will become cooler, more stratified, and consequently nutrient-poor ( 1– 3). These global trends are seen in the North Atlantic, although regional variations are apparent ( Fig. The North Atlantic phytoplankton community appears poised for marked shift and shuffle, which may have broad effects on food webs and biogeochemical cycles.Įarth system models (ESMs) generally indicate that greenhouse gas emissions may, over the coming century, lead to further acidification and warming of the ocean surface, increased surface stratification and decreased mixing depths, and weaker seasonal entrainment of deep nutrients essential for phytoplankton growth ( 1, 2). A century of climate change significantly shuffles community composition by a basin-wide median value of 16%, compared with seasonal variations of 46%. The poleward shift is faster than previously reported for marine taxa, and the predominance of longitudinal shifts is driven by dynamic changes in multiple environmental drivers, rather than a strictly poleward, temperature-driven redistribution of ocean habitats. We find that the central positions of the core range of 74% of taxa shift poleward at a median rate of 12.9 km per decade (km⋅dec −1), and 90% of taxa shift eastward at a median rate of 42.7 km⋅dec −1. Here, using historical environmental and phytoplankton observations, we characterize the realized ecological niches for 87 North Atlantic diatom and dinoflagellate taxa and project changes in species biogeography between mean historical (1951–2000) and future (2051–2100) ocean conditions. Marine phytoplankton communities appear sensitive to climate change, yet understanding of how individual species may respond to anthropogenic climate change remains limited. ![]() Anthropogenic climate change has shifted the biogeography and phenology of many terrestrial and marine species.
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